Your intrepid hosts learn about learning curves – and just how rapid they can be – from "Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition," a new report from Rupert Way, Matthew C. Ives, Penny Mealy, J. Doyne Farmer.
This week your intrepid hosts recapped some BIG news out of Victoria with the announcement of new emissions reduction targets - 75% to 80% (on 2005 levels) by 2035, net zero by 2045 and a renewable electricity target of 95% by 2035. Wowser! The first government in Australia to formalise a 2035 target which has significant implications for the decarbonisation of fossil gas during that timeframe deserves a special shout out! Your resident Victorian co-hosts lamented the overhyped media focus on the revival of state-owned power company SEC with a measly $1Bn in funding - even if they do have a fab retro logo.
A big shout out to friend of the pod Allison Reeve for the recommendation for this week’s paper. As we’re leaning into our (initially) accidental and now somewhat intentional pile-on regarding IAMs, we’ve decided to drive another nail into the coffin of these woefully inadequate-but-still-wildy-influential models and talk technology learning rates. Specifically, a look at 'Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition’ from Rupert Way, Matthew C. Ives, Penny Mealy and J. Doyne Farmer from Oxford University. This paper has caused quite a stir in IAM-land. Were your intrepid hosts shaken, stirred, dirty or taken with a twist? Only one way to find out.
Frankie’s One More Thing is some encouraging progress on the circular economy from a recent meeting of Environment Ministers in which Commonwealth and state and territory governments committed to a product stewardship scheme for solar panels and household electronics, regulation of packaging and further work on phasing out single use plastics.
Tennant’s One More Thing is a computer game called The Case of the Golden Idol in which the intrepid player explores crime scenes frozen in fantasy 18th Century England to solve a bunch of grizzly murders. What’s it got to do with climate and energy? Absolutely nothing! Loads of fun for our analytically minded listenership? You betcha.
Luke’s One More Thing is a 2019 paper he stumbled on and got distracted by, ‘Recalibrating climate prospects’ which includes Amory Lovins, a grandfather of the energy efficiency movement, as a lead author and sets out the case for stronger focus on demand management and energy efficiency paired with renewables in IAMs. Yep, it’s those pesky IAMs undervaluing energy efficiency again.
That’s all folks, see you next time! Please keep tweeting your thoughts to us at @LukeMenzel, @TennantReed and @FrankieMuskovic and if you would like to weave some golden threads through our back catalogue, give us your feelpinions or suggest papers to read we are always here for that - hit us up at mailbag@letmesumup.net.